My adventures in Yerevan

Pancakes

2011-12-17T23:41:00.002+04:00

Ingredients:

2 eggs

1 liter milk

1 tablespoon white sugar

1 tablespoon sunflower oil

1/2 teaspoon baking powder

A pinch of salt

2 1/2 cups flour

Directions:

In a large bowl, sift together the eggs, milk, sugar, oil, baking powder and salt. Then start adding flour and keep mixing to keep it smooth.The substance should be liquid so that it can expand on a surface of frying pan.

Smear very little sunflower oil on a frying pan and put on gas. Start pouring small scoop size substance onto pan and make sure it expands and transforms into the form of pan. It should be smooth and thin. Brown each pancake from both sides.

You can add different fillings with a pancake: sweet or salty.

Bon Appetit!

Do you think it's fair?

2011-11-08T23:38:00.003+04:00

Someone with a big bag of candies opens the bag and gives a child only one candy. Then, when the kid tastes it, and asks for another candy, he is told that it's totally and absolutely impossible to get more, under no circumstances.
Do you think it was fair from the candy giver's side to have let the child taste it?

That's so much like life! We all are given the chance to taste it, and at the end it's all the same... we die... That is so much, so much upsetting.. what's the sense of planning future, doing things, being good and nice... I don't think it's fair..

Birthday Wishlist v.5

2011-10-23T11:30:00.000+05:00

Hello sweet people!I am back to keep you updated with the most important info of the year:

BIRTHDAY WISHLIST v.5

As many of you know, my birthday is on 12th January. Last year that day I was partying with friends at a club, this year I think it will be different and special. However, presents are always welcome and loved! Now, you can check my wishlist below, and remember, you have enough time to prepare a really nice present (out of my list... or if you think you can think of anything even better, then allez!)

Porsche / Mini Cooper / Mustang
Perfume
Lens for my camera (http://www.amazon.com/Canon-70-200mm-Telephoto-Zoom-Cameras/dp/B000053HH5)
Lens for my camera (http://www.amazon.com/Canon-50mm-Lens-Digital-Cameras/dp/B000I1YIDQ)
Diamonds
Makeup
Apartment in NY
Lace Lingerie (http://www.agentprovocateur.com/) // sizes are available upon request

...the list might be expanded.

Thanks for your attention!!

xo xo

2011-10-12T18:06:00.003+05:00

It was the second night I was going to bed at 5AM.. this tough week full of exams is sucking my energy and I can't find boundary between politeness and anxiety.
I was with my friends, and that seemed weird. At some point I closed the door and left. I hate saying that I behaved like a schoolgirl, but I did. And I was even more nervous to get their calls and hear apologizes - but what for? I cannot answer myself, if this is a result of not sleeping, or I feel offended for some reason that would even not matter in other situations.
I ran out to find a place where I could be alone, tell myself negative things, and most probably cry. But what for?!..

my yellow socks

2011-05-20T19:53:00.003+05:00

The class has started and a friend of mine noticed I am not sitting in my usual place. He turned around to see me. I was sitting alone on the last row. He asked "are you fine?", I replied "don't know", and saw him lowering his eyes down on my feet. He noticed a connection between my mood and my socks (according to his observations, I wear colorful socks when I am sad).

These last days were somewhat stressful: too much classes, too much work, and too many people. I will be part of some exciting events in the near future. Now, I want to close the doors and the windows, give away all the mirrors in my apartment - in them I see a girl asking me "what's wrong with you Mary?"

Smooth

2011-04-07T16:09:00.000+05:00

Before and After: photos.2

2011-04-02T23:15:00.003+05:00

In between 2nd and 3rd (small stories from life)

2011-03-30T21:41:00.003+05:00

What makes a student addicted to studies and university? - It's all the opportunities that the university provides students.

I have a free week in-between to relax in my country house, and I have a great company: a book found in our library. Now I finally got why I like the French books on middle age kings and queens, politics, and love... because my grandma has a collection of that genre, and she is fond of these stories. When me and my sister were kids, my grandma used to read such books for us.

So, I am looking forward to start the 3rd semester at the university! The 2nd semester was really great. I met new people, made some new friends, and met someone strong and famous who, I bet, many other young women would love to have in their lives as a guide. Anyway, I feel great to be the lucky one having all the attention and help from that wonderful woman. So many things are to be changed here...

* some great Armenian songs

The suicide (small stories from life)

2011-03-28T00:02:00.004+05:00

The 2nd semester at the university was almost over, leaving us only two last days to prepare for the final exam. These last days have been really tough for everyone, especially for those who needed high grades.

My friend got a call. It was her sister telling that a lady has committed suicide, and was put to hospital at time, and asked the nurse to call my classmate for help. My friend could do nothing more but leave everything and run to the hospital.

One hour passed. Suddenly the door opened and she appeared on the entrance with a strange face.

"It was not her!" - she shouted.

"The damn nurse has mixed the phone number up! And the name of that girl was the same as my friend's!!!"

the professor (small stories from life)

2011-03-19T19:07:00.002+04:00

I locked the door, and took my usual way to the downtown Yerevan. The DVD with "Callas Forever" in my bag had to get back to the rent shop prior my Finance class. Right on the corner of a well known school on Baghramyan Ave. I noticed my professor daydreaming. He was supposed to be walking to my university, so I had to wake him up.

- Hi (I said)

- Hi Mary! (he replied. This was already a compliment, since he's normally ignorant and doesn't bother remembering names)

- Why are you standing here?

- Oh, there was a bus and gas coming out of it, so I decided to wait until the air gets clean and I can move forward. Where are you going?

- To the disk rent shop. I need to give a DVD back.

..and so he went on asking different kinds of questions about where and how to get a DVD in what language etc.

- So what movie do you have in your bag? (he asked)

- It's "Callas Forever".

- You mean Maria Callas.

- Yup

He paused for a while, stared on my face and said:

- You know, you look like Callas.

- Oh really? Thanks! (.. and I felt confused)

- You shouldn't say that. How do you know if I like Callas or not?

Then I laughed and said:

- Ohkay, I'll see at the class.

- See you Mary.

I continued my way down the street and all I was thinking was "he's really funny, but what did he mean??"

I took a public transport to get to the university as soon as the disc was back to its' owners. Still with the same questions in my head I started climbing the outside stairs of the campus, and suddenly noticed my professor sitting on the stairs, and waiting for me. We met again, and walked to the entrance of the building.

- So, what do you actually think about Maria Callas' look? (I asked)

He paused again.

- She's beautiful. (He replied)

And then I went on laughing again.

Callas forever

2011-03-14T01:26:00.000+04:00

I recommend to watch the movie "Callas Forever".

Here's the trailer

Empty Streets

2011-03-11T00:17:00.004+04:00

She swallowed the last piece of the cake while I was putting on my hat. She said - "It's not safe the way you want to go, there are thieves around".

I've put on my headphones and went out of the building. As advised I took another route to the opposite direction together with The Superstar and thoughts.

Before and After: photos.1

2011-03-07T23:41:00.005+04:00

As some of you may know I am fond of taking photos and then process them, so I decided to put some "before and afters" here.

I like to see the difference :)

The Role of Technological Progress in Promoting Sustainable Development

2011-03-03T14:47:00.002+04:00

If the great powers continue to look for solutions in the area of science and technology only, the result will be to worsen the situation.

(Science 162, 13 December 1968, pp 1232-1248)

Introduction

The term “Sustainable Development” (SD) was used for the first time by the Brundtland Comission, and it refers to kind of development, which will meet the needs of current generations in terms of human environment and natural resources, that will not compromise the needs of future generations. SD is conceptually divided into three basic parts: environmental, economic, and social/political sustanability. This paper is mainly focused on economic growth and its impact on global environment. Currently the humanity faces potential problems of running out of natural resources and shortage in food supply that will occur shortly. These global problems force us to think of solutions, and probably the worst fact about it is that the humanity doesn't even consider to cut the amount of resources used so aggressively, but focuses on technological progress, that might perhaps bring us to certain solutions in terms of alternative resources of energy and food.

So here we will start with discussion of the renewable and non-renewable resources on the earth, and the way they are used nowadays. Second, we will talk about the global food supply in scope of population exponential growth worldwide. Then, the current state of art will be taken into account, as well as the path of technological progress and the possible future outcomes.

Renewable and non-renewable resources on earth

Natural resources are the basic ground to maintain life on our planet (whether it is a life of a human, an animal, or any other creature). So the natural resources are classified as renewable and non-renewable. Natural resource stocks can be represented as agricultural land, forest land and its multiple products and services, natural land areas, fresh and salt water fisheries, mineral fuels and non-fuels, non-mineral energy sources of solar, tidal and wind, water resources, etc. As can be assumed from this sample list, some of these items are renewable, but does it actually mean the humanity has the luxury to waste those resources as much as it likes to? In fact the answer is no, and the reason is that the renewable resources have certain individual rates for reproduction, and when the rate of consumption is above the rate of reproduction, then the resource is naturally wasted without a hope of having more for future generations. Here comes the concept of sustainable yield, which can be estimated per microlevel or small-scale models of resource extraction in renewable and nonrenewable resources. The right amount of resource usage according to sustainable yields concept can be achieved when the depletion rate of a resource is less than the replacement rate.

However, in order to keep track of all the numbers of resources used and replaced in the world, global environmental policies should be applied. There has been an empirical research done in order to find the connections between air and water quality and human health and productivity, which made it possible to set appropriate environmental standards. With the accelerating increases in the consumption of all kinds of resources throughout the last centuries, industries in countries have been transforming into bigger and bigger forms, which resulted in desertification, soil erosion and the salinization of productive lands. Additionally, it was proven only recently that an industrial action in one country could have a curcial effect on the environment of another country, which might not nesseccarily be located in neighborhood. For instance, the building of the Aswam High Dam in Egypt has reduced the nutrients reaching the Mediterranean via the Nile delta and adversely affected fish stocks; the mysterious decline of the albatross population on Possession Island was directly linked to the fishing techniques of Japanese vessels operating hundreds of miles to the north; and the stimulation of the winter demand for cut flowers in Northern cities might have contributed to the numbers of landless poor in Kenya. Problems that appear radically different may in fact be directly linked.

The linkages and the knock-on effects may be harder to trace on larger scales. A newly-equipped industrial fishing fleet may have a wide range of impacts, including the impoverishment of “subsistence” fishermen and the malnutrition of their families in areas far from its home. The fleet itself may partly be a response to a rising demand for protein in countries with rapidly growing economies, where there has been an influx of capital that has been withdrawn from high-wage production on the other side of the world.

What does this all mean? - That having regulatory policies of resource consumption in different countries is not enough, the world needs something more. Till the 20^th century the countries in the world were mostly developing independently, all the models of development were only on a national level. So, only after the start of globalization process it has become more realistic to have common rules and regulations for the consumption of natural resources of our planet.

It has been estimated that today the humanity is consuming about 40 percent of total terrestrial photosynthetic production. This is not about reducing only the resources we have, but also has a serious polluting effect. Energy generation, industrial processes, transport, high-input agriculture and domestic consumption continue to make bigger and bigger demands of the capacities of the earth and the atmosphere to absorb CO₂, sulphur. NOX and methane emissions, CFCs, and a range of toxic chemicals including radioactive wastes threaten widespread endemic pollution. These impacts extend globally accompanied by increasing rates of deforestation, decline in fish stocks, loss of agricultural land, loss of soils, depletion of fresh water, loss of habitats, loss of species and loss of biodiversity. It was already estimated that around 100 species die every day. The World Bank estimated that the output generated by different industries in the world might increase by a factor of three by 2030, and if nothing changes till then in terms of the pattern of industrialization and consumption, tens of millions of people could get sick or die each year from industrial pollution.

So, what is the current pattern? Here is a good example: the United States, with per capita income lower than that in Japan, emits more than nineteen tons of carbon per person, approximately twice the level emitted in Japan. This is largely because the United States keeps the cost of energy low. Meaning, that the developed countries in the world encourage people to waste more natural resources, at the same time requiring developing countries to pollute less and be more environmentaly friendly.

However, to be more precise in this topic, better to talk about facts. A scientist has calculated, that the currently known reserves of natural resources are 100 times more than the humanity uses annualy, and if we continue the usage with the same rate, these resources will be exhausted in 36 years, and even if the reserves doubled thanks to some big discovery, the rate of use would increase and the reserves would survive 48 years only. The depletion of natural nonrenewable resources such as oil and gas had not only an effect of pollution and decrease of the earth's natural wealth, but also had a geopolitical effects on countries that owned the resources. Most of these countries are situated in the south, and suffer wars and extreme poverty, mostly because of exploit from the northern countries which are the main consumers of goods.

As can be concluded the issue of depletion of natural resources is related with two concerns: (1) public health and securit; (2) and sustainability.

Food supply and population growth

The problem with food supply in the world has arisen with the exponential growth of population. According to Thomas Robert Malthus the world had to inevitably face mass famine because of the unlimited population growth that would naturally be bigger than the growth of the capacity to produce food. Fortunately that did not come true. However, there is a real and serious problem with the amount of food produced in the world. With the growth of population per capita share of food will be steadily decreasing, resulting in malnutrition, increase of poverty in the world, as well as more aggressive political regimes. The forecasts for the future are not the one we would like to have for our generations: it is clear that we will greatly increase human misery if we do not immediately assume that the world resources available for humanity as sources for energy and food are finite. A finite world can support only a finite population; therefore population growth must eventually equal zero till it stabilizes.

In terms of biological fact any organism needs to have a source of energy (food) to live. This energy is utilized for two purposes: mere maintenance and work. For a simple maintenance of life a human-kind requires about 1600 kilocalories in a day. A greater number would be needed to work and do other activities such as sports, arts, study, etc. So, in order to have enough food for everyone we wil need to take the minimum number of kilocalories and divide the food in the world by this principle. However, in this case if a person doesn't do anything during his life, staying alive will not make any sense. So anyway, how to distribute the sources of energy so that everyone get enough... The appearance of atomic energy has led some scientists to assume it would be a solution. What we saw after the invention of atomic energy? We had the World War Two.

It is still accepted that currently the world produces enough food to feed the present population (despite an estimated on billion suffering from chronic malnutrition). With the pattern of food consumption there should be at least a doubling of production if the population of 2040 is to be adequately fed. Yet per capita food production has declined. At the same time, there is an assumption that by the year 2040 the gaps between North and South, rich and poor will be much bigger. The rich will continue wasting food even in a more aggressive manner, while there will be more poor dying of malnutrition.

These dramatic forecasts led Paul and Ann Ehrlich, co-authors of The Population Explosion, to assert that “Arresting global population growth should be second only in importance to avoiding nuclear war on humanity's agenda”. On the other hand, we have already an example of China's family planning program which is a terrible violation of human rights. Women get forced to make abortions, or get sterilized if they have already one child. Additionally, many couples decide to abort fetus if it is going to be female, since many couples want to have boy-babies. As a result, the number of young male adults in China is much more than the number of young female adults, which makes marriage crisis in that republic.

The pollution problem is another consequences of population. As population becomes denser, the natural chemical and biological recycling processes become overloaded, calling for a redefinition of property rights.

Poverty level also grows with the population density. For example, a poor farmer has a land of a certain size and has two sons. He would not be able to educate his sons, as he doesn't have enough money and he also needs his sons to help him grow food for the family. When his sons grow up, he will divide the land into two parts, and grant those parts his sons. So, as a result there would be two poor men with their own families, with even smaller pieces of land to feed the family (which also means even poorer), and so on, and so on.

This process is exponentially increasing the number of poor population in the world.

Technological progress

Technological progress in terms of global development can be viewed from different perspectives: first, it can be a tool helping to find new resources for life maintenance; second, it can have distructive effects on the planet. In both of the cases the scientists know that the pattern we have chosen has no long-term projection with the current state of art in its basics, however, they rely on possible future technological inventions that might change something. This is unfortunately their ideal plan that has no guarantee at all to come true. Besides the hopes that the technological progress provides, it also had negative effects such as Bhopal, Chenobyl, the Exxon Valdez disaster, the setting alright of the Kuwait oil wells during the Gulf War, the Siberian oil pipeline disaster, etc. Additionally, a group of scientists rely on such kind of technological improvements that will make us capable of moving to another planet when our planet is unrecoverably exhausted. However, this option is too unrealistic in terms of the time limits.

One of the most dangerous things in scope of investing in global R&D and waiting something back from it is that popular scientific journals are publicly calming humanity down by telling that almost every problem in the world has a technical solution (which is defined as one that requires a change only in the techniques of the natural sciences, demanding little or nothing in the way of change in human values or ideas of morality). But does the technological progress create problems that later need technological solutions to fix? Apparently, yes. So, why then invest in R&D?

In the limits of technological progress the issues of sustainable development are concerned with:

global pollution of atmosphere and oceans;
concern about intergenerational flows of natural and manmade capital in a “full world” where natural capital is the limiting factor of production;
industrialization and integration of finance, and marketing and advertising in the global marketplace.

In order to stay somehow more environmentally friendly, the technological progress should at least be regulated counting and satisfying criteria of the above mentioned points.

There are also some positive paths that scientists try to follow in technological improvements (though not always the best options). For example, they are trying to find new ways of getting energy that would be by depleting the nonrenewable resources. Scientists are also trying to create synthetic food that would be similar to natural food.

As for food, it is unrealistic to have anything similar to natural. We have the example of McDonalds in the U.S. that produces genetically modified food. We know that the population using McDonalds food is not only overweight but also has problems with health. So, genetically modified food is not a solution. As for the energy there are several methods suggested (such as solar-, wind- and hydro- energy), some of which are already being used in developed countries.

Solar energy is primarily the use of solar radiation for practical ends. There are several methods of how to capture, convert and distribute solar energy, such as photovoltaic panels, pumps, fans (to convert sunlight into useful outputs), selection of materials that have favorable thermal properties, design of spaces that naturally circulate air, and reference of the position of a building to the sun. However, the heat that the sun gives to humanity has also some negative effects (namely UHI) especially in emtropolitan areas. UHI is abbreviated as Urban Heat Islands, and the average temperature is much higher in those areas than that of the surroundings. These higher temperatures are a result of increased absorption of the Solar light by urban materials such as asphalt and concrete that have higher heat capacities.

Currently there are many spheres and industries that use sunlight to optimize the alternative use of other resources:

urban planning;
agriculture;
water heating;
heating, cooling and ventilation;
cooking;
electricity;
solar vehicles.

Humanity also gets energy out of wind. There are a few types of wind-powered electrical generators. The device used to convert kinetic energy from wind into mechanical is called wind turbine. Often this energy is later converted to electricity. Wind turbines are very useful in terms of the basic resources they need to create electricity, however, they also require large space of land to be installed. Thus, except of giving energy, they also pick out portion of land that could be used for food production.

Another way to get energy almost without wasting the natural resources of the earth is per hydro-energy. Here the electricity, or better to say hydroelectricity, is generated by hydropower, wich is the production of electrical power through the use of the gravitational force of falling or flowing water. Currently 20 percent of energy in the world is produced by hydropower.

Conclusion

As discussed in the paper, the humanity is desperately searching for paths to skip the crisis that

will inevitably arise in the near future. At the same time people in the world do not want to make compromises, and they continue wasting more and more natural resources. Perhaps this is because a human being believes that he is the master of the planet, and is sure that human mind can solve any problem, and thus can provide more energy and more food with the help of technological progress. Unfortunately, this is not true at all. The arrogance of humanity is infinite, and it leads us to a collapse, since the natural resources , on the other hand are finite.

If the governments and scientists were more attentive to the development pattern during the latest centuries, they might have noticed that although the material prosperity has been constantly rising and people have been becoming wealthier, the quality of life on the earth has been actually steadily declining. We should also consider, that although the scientists try to find alternative ways of survival (i.e. the alternative sources of energy), a portion of people in the world, that is in addition the richest part, will be fighting against implementing of those technologies in industries, because this portion of people is getting its' wealth by depleting natural resources (namely oil, gas, coal, etc.) which in turn leads to wars and aggressive actions.

“the various global crises... are not separate crises: an environmental crisis, a development crisis, an energy crisis. They are all one.”

Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987, p4)

Bibliography

Earth System: History and Natural Variability

S. B. Suslick, I. F. Machado, 2002

Sustainable Exploitation of Renewable Resources

R. Hilborn, C. J. Walters and D. Ludwig, 1995

Sustainable Development: An Introductory Guide

D. Reid, 1995

The International History Review

Carley, M. Jabara, 1994

Wikipedia

2011-03-01T22:43:00.004+04:00

I was walking fast in the empty street. I've shut my ears up with the headphones not to feel I was alone. The early spring wind was stretching my hair back making me feel even colder. The feeling of hunger was getting much stronger because of the headache after the class.

I've entered the first supermarket on the way, took a basket and grabbed some yogurts and russian pelmeni. Random thoughts were helping me get rid of fatigue.

Then I've thought of bravery. I've tried to remember everyone I know, and counted only two people who would really be brave and honest, ambitious enough to be successful, and moral enough not to harm anybody.

Maybe there is a crisis of really brave people in the world, or maybe I have met too many yellow dogs out there..

Well OK Honey

2011-02-24T20:48:00.005+04:00

Cooking again.

Having priorly finished all the homework for the week, I just found some time for creating another masterpiece.

Well, although not a genius in kitchen, I sometimes cook delicious meals not per recipes but per improvisations!

I'll call this meal "Well OK Honey", since I was cooking it listening to this song:

Here's the improvisation:

* add some salt at the end

bonne appetite!

this place called the world

2011-02-21T13:56:00.002+04:00

People feel happy hurting each other, even the closest ones. This is the place we live. Can't stop wondering all these phenomena. Everything's not as clean as we want them to be... everything's perverted, thoughts are perverted.. this is really disappointing

i don't want to live in such a world

Long time no post

2011-02-17T11:58:00.007+04:00

Many things have been happening on my side keeping my hands off the blog. Now, I am confused and don't know where to start and where to finish.

Last couple of months I was totally busy with classes, since we learn things I have no idea about and background. So that's twice harder for me, but I somehow manage ;)

I have a few fresh photos on my flickr. Some days ago, I received a message. An American artist was suggesting to write an article about me, and the only thing I had to do, was to answer four questions, and send him four photos (that I shot). I feel really glad about the news. The article will be published in his website on coming Sunday. So, if I don't manage to come back to my blog before that and put the link, here it is now.

Some days ago I was also suggested to pose as a model in a photo-shoot - an apprentice photographer, though, and an apprentice model :) anyway, I've always been ready to make an attempt. Find some photos below.

Another news on my side: I'll participate in a workshop as an instructor! Got the offer yesterday :)

What an interesting thing life is, isn't it?

When some part of it sinks down, the other part raises high, and you never have time to feel blue.

"Technological Forecasting in Perspective" - critical analysis

2011-02-06T20:19:00.003+04:00

The original article “Technological Forecasting in Perspective” was published in the “Management Science” magazine in October 1966, by Raymond S. Isenson. According to the author, countries in the world are creating models to predict the future development trends, which gives them power to control the technological development, by giving enough, or applying restrictive policies in order to stop development when neccessary. So, the development model is actually a long range planning tool for governments. The forecasters assist decision makers, or politicians in choosing policies to keep a government alive in our unstable world.

The historical evidence tells that centuries ago even pharaoas were trusting forecasters in order to stock up on food against famine years. The predictions were based on statistics from earlier years that gave forecasters a chance to think of possible developments. However, because the wealth in past was described mostly by agricultural goods and natural resources, the predictions were not very precise. Many variables have been added in predictions with time, based on the fact that statisticians were finding more and more relationships between their dependent variable and the new factors. The method of verification of those variables was simple, though timely. The forecasters were adding variables, and making economical estimations for future years, and then when those years were passed, they were checking if their estimations were precise. With these experiments economists came to the concept of Economic Projection that explores theoretical capabilities of economics. Since the future is almost impossible to predict, the economic forecast can only tell what might be achieved under the assumed set of circumstances. Because of this limitation on the innovation factor in economic forecast, the world has suffered a lot after the Industrial Revolution in the 18^th century, and the technological boom in the 20^th century. Thus, statisticians tried to create a mathematical model for innovations, or more exactly, a mathematical model for the “state of art”:

K(t)=∫₀^tI(t)dt

where:

K(t) is the state of knowledge at time T;

I(t) is the number of new information bits added during an increment of time and is a function of time.

I_i(t)=p(t)*Q*N_i(t)[1+b*N_i(t)]

where:

p(t) is the probability that a scientist will make a contribution during a given time increment;

Q is the average productivity factor of a single scientist;

b is the coefficient of connection between scientists (in terms of exchange of information), that speeds up the process of producing new information;

N_i(t) is the number of scientists actively engaged at time t.

Since the topic of the article is pretty indefinite in quantitative terms, it is obvious that scientists have been blindly trying to transform the facts into mathematical models based on time series by taking historical data and trying to find a trend for the future, as well as expressing Knowledge based on cross-sectional data: a dependent variable (K(t)) related to the average probability of a contribution into innovations (p(t)), scientist's average productivity coefficient (Q - taken from sample number of scientists in centuries), the effect of globalization on the state of art defined as nodes effect between scientists at one point in time (b), and the overall number of scientists active at the same point of time (N_i(t)).

This model is a very good example, showing the fact that the world doesn't consist of only quantitative problems, but also qualitative ones. Statisticians should be able to think out of box, and express qualitative factors in a way, that simplifies understanding of the phenomena, as well as forecast future developments of it. Our “knowledge” model is a mix of cross-sectional regression and time-series estimation, that cannot be categorized as a classical regression model, since it is more qualitative variable. With the model, we can always count the average level of information available for the humanity in the world. The independent variables in the model were collected and added to the model during many years. The most interesting part in this concept, however, is that an independent variable may not neccessarily exist at this moment, but, say, starting from some point in time it should be added to the function. For example, in the initial model, the “b” coefficient was not included, since there was no globalization factor. As the state of knowledge has improved, and the Internet was invented, the model became more ineffective, and the “b” was added. So, the main shortcoming of the model is apparently the need of complicating it all the time, as new information is being added with an increasing rate, which also creates new factors influencing the process of creating new information, consequently creating new independent variables to be included in the model.

As a conclusion to the analysis, it should be noted, that the original regression for the knowledge state does not tend to answer questions like “when the humanity will be capable to find a new Galaxy”, but only serves to indicate the possibility of achieving new goals. In fact, newer and apparently better models can be created for the same estimations: biologists can think about the same topic in the limits of one-cell organisms and their transformations in time, physicians may discuss the topic in terms of atoms and the kinetik and potential energies, etc. Same ideas can be described in many ways, but the main concept will always stay the same, and at the end of the day, all the scientists will come to one point – the concept of estimation of Information.

_____________________________________________________________________________

by Mary D. Haroutyounyan,
2011

Rémi GAILLARD

2011-02-03T12:28:00.001+04:00

Learn who Rémi is here

a good mix of his funny videos:

and here's his youtube channel link

2011-01-22T19:38:00.001+04:00

Gevorg Eloyan

Ushadrutyun!!!
Mer kursi Tikoi kurtkai kochak@ hunvari 18 anhaskanali patcharnerov anhaytacela. Xndrum em gtnoxin kojak@ veradardznel!!!

Kchaki hatkutyunner:
sev guyni, klor, vren ka 4 hat ancq, lriv tazaya (Tikon kurtken nor er arel), 2sm sharavix, shikaher u kapuyt achqerov. Tnic durs galuc haqin exela jinsic tabat, karmir guyni svitr u botasner. Arandznapes shpvox chi, voobshe chi xosum. kam xosaluc akcentova xosum, djvar haskanaq!

Xostanum enq dramakan pargevatrum!

on Thursday · · Comment ·

Svetlana Vardanyan, Kristine Sahakyan and 2 others like this.
- Sergey Aghinyan akcenti pahy chaskaca!!! inqn el a en koxmeric? :D
  Yesterday at 9:50am ·
- Sergey Aghinyan Bajc lurj joxovurd vor gtneq anpajman zen haneq. Sax gisher achq chem kpcrel.
  Yesterday at 9:52am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan aper joxovrdakan xosq ka " kochak@ tirojna nman linum".
  Yesterday at 9:56am · · 2 people
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan Vay qoranam es.. Inchqan a pargevatrutyune?
  Yesterday at 10:05am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan hastat chem kara asem, baic 95% vstahutyamb karam asem ira interval@
  Yesterday at 10:07am ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan de asa :D
  Yesterday at 10:27am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan I'll tell you in a sec
  Yesterday at 10:28am · · 1 person
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan aaaaaa... prkeq iiiindz :D :D lav, het ancanq Tikoyi kochakin
  Yesterday at 10:29am ·
- Mariam Avetisyan vay xeghch Tiko, ba hima incha anelu??
  Yesterday at 11:24am ·
- Kristine Sahakyan Gev jan, pargevatrumic er petq sksel! :D
  Yesterday at 11:31am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan Tikon voroshela Deanin namak gri....
  Yesterday at 11:31am · · 1 person
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan tenc el chaseciq inchqan eq talu, karogha kochake im mot a arden.... anyway, storagrutyunner petqa havaqel dean-i hamar? kam el esor ed harce bardzracnenq dean-i mot
  Yesterday at 11:35am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan xi eq ha harcnum poxi hamar, aseci che I will tell you in a sec.!!! :)
  Yesterday at 11:36am ·
- Gevorg Eloyan storagrutyunner ampayman petqa!!! ete inchvor mekin POLNI LAVA vor Tikon mnalua aranc kochaki tox asi vor ira anun@ chnshenq.
  Yesterday at 11:38am ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan isk Tikoyi kochake Tikoyi chap boyov a?... elnelov asacva&qic?
  Yesterday at 11:39am · · 1 person
- Mariam Avetisyan Cancarner gnaceq das areq)))))))))
  Yesterday at 11:42am ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan es el em dra masin mta&um...
  Yesterday at 11:42am ·
- Sergey Aghinyan ‎"aseci che I will tell you in a sec.!!! :)" shat lavn er :DDDDDD
  Yesterday at 11:44am ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan Erexeq, es inch nexutyunner eq qashum? Arden nerqin gorcerum ka ira fotorobot@. Interpol@ arden lurj zbaxvum a ed harcov...
  Yesterday at 12:05pm · · 1 person
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan ‎:D :D :D herosi ter-e haytnvec
  Yesterday at 12:05pm ·
- Mariam Avetisyan vay Tik jan es incher em lsum, es inch vat bana eghel)))))))
  Yesterday at 12:06pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan Tik jan hyy? inch norutjun ka? kotorvecinq stex
  Yesterday at 12:06pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan hujs ka vor voxj kgtnen?
  Yesterday at 12:06pm ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan erexeq es arden lacuuum em stegh :D :D :D :D :D
  Yesterday at 12:07pm ·
- Mariam Avetisyan ‎)))))) es inch jrikn enq menq bayc
  Yesterday at 12:07pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan Chisht a tvum a te herosakan mahov gnac ed kochak@, bayc asum en hl@ sax a inq@, mi vrazeq..
  Yesterday at 12:07pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan Tik jan inch kases ete "жди меня" haxordumov porcenq gtnel???
  Yesterday at 12:08pm ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan nor TV-ov asecinq vor mi hat kochak en gtel drsum lyukeric meki mijic... xeghdva&... :((((( diake cuyc tvecin.. vonc vor mere cher.. phew
  Yesterday at 12:08pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan haskanum em, vor bolorid hamar el canr a katarvac@, bayc anum enq amen inch....
  Yesterday at 12:08pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan che che che, chem havatum ed mery chi exel
  Yesterday at 12:09pm · · 1 person
- Tigran Arzumanyan Zhdi menya lav gaxapar er Gev. Kmtacem aper.
  Yesterday at 12:10pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan Aper menq mtacelu jamanak chunenq, petqa gorcel....
  Yesterday at 12:11pm · · 1 person
- Tigran Arzumanyan Mer jan, dzhvar lyuki mej lini, vorovhetev inq@ qaxaq@ shat lav giter, tesoxutyun@ shat lav er.. Voch xmum a, voch cxum...
  Yesterday at 12:11pm · · 3 people
- Sergey Aghinyan ham el loxal giti
  Yesterday at 12:12pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan cher xexdvi
  Yesterday at 12:12pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan ‎6 tarekanic loxi em tanum aper
  Yesterday at 12:12pm · · 2 people
- Sergey Aghinyan of chgitem inchqan vat ban ases mardu mtqov ancnum a
  Yesterday at 12:12pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan qo 6 tarekanic te ira????
  Yesterday at 12:13pm · · 3 people
- Tigran Arzumanyan harcin optimistoren ekeq motenanq...
  Yesterday at 12:13pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan shat lavn er Seroj
  Yesterday at 12:13pm ·
- Mariam Avetisyan meraaa))))))))))
  Yesterday at 12:14pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan ira aper...))
  Yesterday at 12:14pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan Tik angleren gone giter?
  Yesterday at 12:15pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan aper AUA dimec ktrvec chisht a, bayc anglerenic shat lav er. Nenc vor iranic arxain em.. chi kori voch mi tex..
  Yesterday at 12:16pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan Arsenin cheq asel, vor chhuzvi?
  Yesterday at 12:16pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan Tik isk comp giti?
  Yesterday at 12:17pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan Gev karoxa gorci es uzum texavores??? ed inch harcer es talis??/
  Yesterday at 12:17pm · · 1 person
- Tigran Arzumanyan Nenc es xosum Gev jan, vonc-vor ches chanachum aper.. En or@ irar het eiq xmum...
  Yesterday at 12:18pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan Gevy chi xmum!!! urish ban asa
  Yesterday at 12:19pm ·
- Mary D. Haroutyounyan es esor ura& achqerov em galu Rubinayin tenalu :D enqan lacacareciiq :D :D :D
  Yesterday at 12:19pm · · 1 person
- Tigran Arzumanyan chancav aper?))))
  Yesterday at 12:19pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan ham el kochaks nenc kenacner er asum, vor ov karar chxmer ira het?
  Yesterday at 12:20pm ·
- Sergey Aghinyan vochinch kases gishernery kardacel em, iran ed dur kga
  Yesterday at 12:20pm ·
- Tigran Arzumanyan Mary jan, dekan@ andzamb texekacvac a patahari masin, nenc vor shat havanakan a inqn el kga tac achqerov))
  Yesterday at 12:23pm · · 2 people
- Gevorg Eloyan Tik jan vonc chem janachum, im shalvari kochaki het nuyn dasaranic en exel!!!
  Yesterday at 12:23pm · · 2 people
- Tigran Arzumanyan Patmum er Gev. asum er, vor kargin txa a.. ham el lav Forecasting giti))
  Yesterday at 12:25pm ·
- Gevorg Eloyan giter minchev Nunen chsksec et ararkayi her@ anicel!!!
  Yesterday at 12:51pm ·
- Kristine Sahakyan achqis et Kochak@ Forecastingi u Nunei dardic gnac...:D
  Yesterday at 1:25pm · · 1 person
- Gevorg Eloyan nunei
  Yesterday at 2:47pm ·